New In-Migrants Account for Most of Josephine County’s Population Gains

August 5, 2021

The 2018-2019 migration patterns were recently released by the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). Migration data for the United States are based on year-to-year address changes reported on individual income tax returns filed with the IRS. They present migration patterns by state or by county for the entire United States and are available for inflows – the number of new residents who moved to a state or county and where they migrated from, and outflows – the number of residents leaving a state or county and where they went.

These migration patterns show the number of returns and exemptions (a good proxy for people) that filed their federal taxes in a different county from the previous year. Not only can this data help show the volume of migrants into or out of the Rogue Valley, but it also reveals the county of origin for those moving here. On the other hand, we can also track where folks move to when they file their taxes with a different address than their prior year’s tax return.

Net migration remained positive in Josephine County in 2019. The county netted more than 400 exemptions from 2018 to 2019. In other words, there were 4,029 exemptions that migrated to Josephine County and 3,596 exemptions who migrated out of Josephine County, for a net migration gain of 433 exemptions or people. Of the 4,029 who migrated to Josephine County, 2,283 came from a different state and 1,746 came from a different county in Oregon. Among the 3,596 who migrated out of Josephine County, 1,762 left for a different state and 1,834 migrated to a different county in Oregon.

Population estimates from Portland State University Population Research Center show a gain of 355 new residents in Josephine County from July 1, 2018 to July 1, 2019 – trending similarly to the IRS data, though it doesn’t cover exactly the same time period as the IRS tax year data. Not everyone who migrated may have filed taxes during the period the IRS collects data for that year. Late filers would be excluded from the annual IRS migration data. Josephine County population growth depends upon net in-migration. From 2010 to 2020, Josephine County had 3,887 more deaths than births. The population increase was fueled by net migration of 7,734 new residents, for a total population gain of 3,847 during the decade.
The top net migration counties include many in California, including Butte County where the Paradise fire displaced so many. These net figures do mask the areas that have a stronger population exchange. There were a large number that moved between Jackson and Josephine counties from 2018 to 2019; 986 exemptions (or people) moved from Josephine to Jackson County and 956 migrated from Jackson to Josephine County, for a net migration loss to Josephine County of 30. We also had relatively similar in- and out-migration between Coos, Douglas, and Curry counties. But the California net in-migration effect is quite apparent looking at the top net in-migration counties in 2019.
We saw faster population growth coming out of the Great Recession but that has slowed in the past couple years as home prices have now spiked past pre-recession peaks. Rental costs are also reaching new heights in the past couple years as vacancy rates have fallen and the supply of new housing hasn’t kept up with demand. However, it is important to remember that our population growth has been an essential component to the region’s economic growth. New people become critical contributors to our local labor force, create or relocate businesses in the Rogue Valley, bringing diverse perspectives, and more importantly, are looking for many of the same quality of life benefits that those of us that call this place home value.

A Few Notes about IRS Migration Data

The data are available for filing years 1991 through 2019 and include:

• Number of returns filed, which approximates the number of households that migrated.
• Number of personal exemptions claimed, which approximates the number of individuals.
• Total adjusted gross income, starting with filing year 1995.
• Aggregate migration flows at the state level, by the size of adjusted gross income (AGI) and age of the primary taxpayer, starting with filing year 2011.