Rogue Valley Jobs Projected to Increase 11% by 2031
March 6, 2023Total Rogue Valley employment is expected to grow by 13,410 jobs between 2021 and 2031, according to new projections from the Oregon Employment Department. Projections for the Rogue Valley point to modest job growth between 2021 and 2031. The recovery from low employment levels in 2021 during the recovery from the COVID-19 recession is a large part of the 10-year projected jobs. In addition, many job openings are expected due to the need to replace workers who leave their occupations.
In 2021 there were an annual average 126,600 jobs in the Rogue Valley. The 11% increase in employment between 2021 and 2031 is divided by private-sector gains of 12,680 jobs and 560 jobs in government.
All Industries Add Jobs
All major industry sectors excluding information are expected to add jobs. The private education and health services sector will add the most jobs, up by 4,090 (+16%) over the 10-year period. This growth is attributed to the aging of the Rogue Valley’s population, longer life expectancies, and long-term population growth.
Leisure and hospitality is projected to increase the fastest and add the second largest number of jobs. The projected gain of 3,010 jobs (24% growth) in leisure and hospitality is mainly driven by the recovery from the pandemic, as restaurants, hotels, and arts, cultural, and recreational establishments have seen increased demand as in-person and recreational activities resume. In 2021, leisure and hospitality was still 2,560 jobs short of its 2019 level, so over 80% of jobs added over the decade will be due to recovering lost jobs. Construction is expected to grow by 850 jobs (+14%). Continued demand for housing, population growth, and continuing recovery from the Almeda fire is expected to result in slightly faster job growth than the all-industry average.
Trade, transportation, and utilities is a large industry sector that is projected to grow by 1,630 jobs (+6%) due to a recovery from the COVID-19 recession in retail trade and demand for transportation services as more people shop online and need products delivered. Slower growing and slightly declining sectors include financial activities (+3%) and information (-1%). Government employment is expected to rise by just 4% over the ten-year period. Challenges with budgets, enrollment, and demographics will all weigh on projected job growth in local government education, which is only expected to add 100 jobs, or 2%, from 2021 to 2031.
Government
Projections show relatively modest growth in government (7%). Federal government will add 120 jobs (6%), including some additional employment for fire suppression. State government is expected to add 60 jobs (5%). Local government will add 830 jobs (7%), helped by gains in education and health care.
All Industries Need Workers
Beyond gains associated with structural growth and recovery from the COVID-19 recession, all broad industry sectors will provide employment opportunities. Many job openings will be created by 2031 due to the need to replace workers who retire, leave the labor force for other reasons, or make a major occupational change.
More information on 2021-2031 industry and occupational projections for Oregon and sub-state areas can be found at QualityInfo.org/projections.