Economy:Projections

Oregon to Add Nearly 265,000 New Jobs by 2031

Oregon's job growth will total 13% between 2021 and 2031. Private payrolls are expected to grow by 240,200 (15%), while government employment will increase by 20,300 (7%), and self-employment will grow by 4,400 (3%).

For every new job added by growing and expanding businesses, Oregon employers will have another nine job openings requiring newly trained workers to replace those who leave the labor force or make a major occupational change.

Leisure and Hospitality Leads Long-Term Employment Growth

The leisure and hospitality sector will add the most jobs of any sector in Oregon by 2031. Leisure and hospitality will also grow at the fastest rate, and account for nearly one out of every four new jobs in Oregon over the decade.

This growth is largely driven by the recovery from the pandemic, as restaurants, hotels, and arts, cultural, and recreational establishments are expected to see increased demand from the public resuming in-person and recreational activities.

Some Private Industries Will Not Reach Peak Employment

Some private industries will not regain peak employment by 2031. Manufacturing should grow by 9% to 203,100 jobs. That's below its most recent peak of 207,300 jobs in 2006. Its all-time high was 228,600 jobs in 1998.

Financial activities should grow by 3% to 105,200, below its high of 106,600 in 2007.

Fastest Growing and Fastest Declining Industries

Detailed industries with the fastest job gains over the next 10 years include special food services, motion picture and video industries, and other transit and ground passenger transportation. Those with the biggest expected declines include computer and peripheral equipment manufacturing, newspaper and book publishers, printing and related activities, and telecommunications carriers.

Declining Industries

Several industry groups with the biggest projected losses relate to news media, production and distribution of various paper-related products, and retail trade. These include computer and peripheral equipment manufacturing, radio and television broadcasting, printing, pulp, paper, and paperboard mills, and electronics and appliance stores.

Job Openings by Industry, 2021-2031

Health care and social assistance and accommodation and food services are expected to have the greatest number of job openings between 2021 and 2031. Most job openings are projected due to the need to replace workers leaving their occupations.

Nine out of 10 total job openings are expected due to the need to replace workers who retire, leave the labor force for other reasons, or make a major occupational change, with the remaining openings due to new or expanding businesses.

Occupational Openings in Oregon

Nearly one out of four projected job openings over the next 10 years is expected to be a service-related job. Service-related jobs will also have the fastest growth rate followed by health care occupations. All broad occupational categories in Oregon are expected to add jobs over the next 10 years.

Fastest-Growing Occupational Groups

The food preparation and serving-related occupational group is projected to grow the fastest. Personal care and service occupations are the second fastest-growing occupational group. These figures reflect mainly a recovery of pandemic-related job losses incurred in 2020. By comparison, in the last set of projections prior to the pandemic, these two occupational groups were projected to be the 10th and third fastest growing. Healthcare support is also expected to grow rapidly.

Fastest-Growing Occupations

Eight of the top 15 fastest-growing occupations are heavily concentrated in leisure and hospitality sectors hit hard by the pandemic. By comparison, in the last set of projections prior to the pandemic, health care occupations and those associated with health care (including mental health) accounted for 13 of the 20 fastest-growing occupations.

Typical Entry-Level Education

In 2021, six out of 10 jobs in Oregon typically required a minimum of high school education or less. To meet more competitive requirements for Oregon's jobs, six out of 10 required education beyond high school.

Typical Competitive Education

In 2021, six out of 10 jobs in Oregon typically required a minimum of high school education or less. To meet more competitive requirements for Oregon's jobs, six out of 10 required education beyond high school.

Projected Growth Rate by Entry-Level Education

Occupations that do not require a high school diploma are projected to be the fastest-growing set of occupations (+18%). This growth is mainly caused by the COVID-19 pandemic where workers without a bachelor's degree have experienced high levels of unemployment. Master's degree occupations are the second fastest-growing set of occupations (+18%), followed by associate's degree occupations (+16%), and bachelor's degree occupations (+12%).