Economy:Projections

Oregon to Add 318,000 New Jobs by 2030

Oregon's job growth will total 16% between 2020 and 2030. This growth rate is higher than recent projections cycles and accounts for recovery from low employment levels in 2020 due to the COVID-19 recession.

Private payrolls are expected to grow by 284,000 (18%), while government employment will increase by 26,000 (9%), and self-employment will grow by 8,000 (7%).

Leisure and Hospitality is Projected to Recover

Leisure and hospitality will add the most jobs of any sector in Oregon by 2030. Leisure and hospitality will also grow at the fastest rate and account for nearly one out of every four new jobs in Oregon over the decade.

This growth is largely driven by the recovery from the pandemic, as restaurants, hotels, and arts, cultural, and recreational establishments are expected to see increased demand from the public resuming in-person and recreational activities.

Some Private Industries Will Not Reach Peak Employment

Some private industries will not regain peak employment by 2030. Manufacturing should grow by 11 percent to 205,900 jobs. That's below its most recent peak of 207,300 jobs in 2006. Its all-time high was 228,600 jobs in 1998.

Information sector employment should grow to 38,200, about 1,500 jobs below its last peak in 2001.

Most Industries Projected to Gain Jobs, Some Will Lose

Detailed industries with the fastest job gains over the next 10 years include motion picture and video industries, special food services, and performing arts companies. Those with the biggest expected declines include newspaper and book publishers, computer and peripheral equipment manufacturing, and radio and television broadcasting.

Declining Industries

Several industry groups with the biggest projected losses relate to the production and distribution of various paper-related products, news media, and retail trade. These include newspaper and book publishers, radio and television broadcasting, printing, pulp and paper mills, and electronics and appliance stores.

Job Openings by Industry

Private health care and social assistance and accommodation and food services are expected to add the highest number of job openings between 2020 and 2030. Most job openings are projected due to the need to replace workers leaving their occupations.

Nine out of 10 total job openings are expected to be due to the need to replace workers who retire, leave the labor force for other reasons, or make a major occupational change, with the remaining openings due to new or expanding businesses.

Occupational Openings in Oregon

One out of four projected job openings over the next 10 years is expected to be a service-related job. Service-related jobs will also have the fastest growth rate, which in part is attributed to the recovery from the COVID-19 recession. All broad occupational categories in Oregon are expected to add jobs over the next 10 years.

Fastest-Growing Occupational Groups

Food preparation and serving-related occupational group is projected to grow the fastest. Personal care and service occupations are the second fastest-growing occupational group. These figures reflect mainly a recovery of pandemic-related job losses incurred in 2020. By comparison, in the last set of projections, these two occupational groups were projected to be the tenth and third fastest growing.

Fastest-Growing Occupations

Ten of the top 15 fastest-growing occupations are occupations that are heavily concentrated in leisure and hospitality that was hard hit by the pandemic. By comparison, in the last set of projections, health care occupations and those associated with health care (including mental health) accounted for 13 of the 20 fastest-growing occupations.

Occupational Projections

Service occupations are expected to have the most job openings over the next 10 years, but job openings will be plentiful in many different occupational groups.

Use this chart to explore job openings in major occupational groups and individual occupation. Click on a category to drill down and explore.

Typical Entry-Level Education

In 2020, six out of 10 jobs in Oregon typically required a minimum of high school education or less. To meet more competitive requirements for Oregon's jobs, six out of 10 required education beyond high school.

Typical Competitive Education

In 2020, six out of 10 jobs in Oregon typically required a minimum of high school education or less. To meet more competitive requirements for Oregon's jobs, six out of 10 required education beyond high school.

Projected Growth Rate by Entry-Level Education

Occupations that do not require a high school diploma are projected to be the fastest-growing set of occupations (+21%). This growth is mainly caused by the COVID-19 pandemic where workers without a bachelor's degree have experienced high levels of unemployment. Master's degree occupations are the second fastest-growing set of occupations (+19.9%), followed by associate's degree occupations (+19%), and bachelor's degree occupations (+15%).